The bold line is the real Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate from 2006 to 2026, from the mining boom and the global financial crisis to the pandemic floor and the whipsaw since. Click any marked moment to see what happened and how the eight forces stood. General information, not advice.
Every rate and reading on this page is a real published figure, monthly from 2006 to 2026, drawn from the primary sources below. Nothing is invented. The only thing worked out here is the set of force bars inside each moment, and the method for those is set out further down.
Each force is turned into a lean by the machine's published weight table: inflation 0.90, trimmed mean 0.70, jobs 0.60, growth 0.50, global shocks 0.45, confidence 0.40, bond yields 0.35. Each reading is measured against a plain neutral point, the inflation target midpoint for prices, around full employment for jobs, and so on, then scaled by that weight, so a bar shows which way and how hard the force was pushing the cost of cash. It is deterministic: the same readings always give the same bars, and the direction matches how the live machine reads each force today.
Three honest caveats. The standard variable rate is the advertised headline, not what most people pay, so it runs above the actual paid line, which begins in mid 2019 when the RBA's consistent series starts. Confidence is shown by direction only because the index is licensed. Government debt is the open question the machine does not score, shown only for context. This is history, not a forecast.
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